The Long Run: A Game of Dominoes
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As expected, republican candidates Matthew Roberson (State Representative, left) and Drew MacEwen (Congress) came second in their primaries, meaning that they’ll be on the ballot in November [/caption]
Election Analysis by Charlie Bermant
Political junkies love to play election games, especially during the long three months between the primary and the general election. We add up the losing candidate’s totals and add them to the candidate who they are most likely to endorse. It’s not ever a slam dunk.
“The primary is a strong indicator but an imperfect predictor,” said Bruce Cowan, the 24th Legislative District Democratic chair. “It’s a good snapshot of the moment and a very reliable indicator because so many people take part, and they are all likely to vote in November.”
So let’s pick some winners. Bob Ferguson will win the governor’s race, he earned an impressive 45 percent of the total vote. Supporters of fellow Democrat Mark Mullet are likely to support Ferguson, Mullet’s six percent will pull Ferguson over the top. Republican nominee Dave Reichert can’t take anything for granted, including the support of Semi Bird, who finished third behind Ferguson and Reichert. Bird was endorsed by State and Local Republicans above the presumably too-liberal Reichert.
“That would be me compromising,” Bird said about the possibility of him supporting Reichert. “I would ask you this: Would Dave Reichert want the support of someone that he referred to as a con man, a snake oil salesman, a crook, or a thief?”
Democrat Emily Randall will be elected as our new District 6 United States Representative. She earned 35 percent and will not need all of her opponent Hilary Franz’s 25 percent to win. Democrats Franz and Randall collectively earned 58 percent of the vote. In her concession statement, Franz has encouraged voters to “work harder than ever so we can flip the House, defeat Donald Trump, and defend our democracy” while bemoaning the Super PAC funds in Randall’s favor. So her support for Randall could be tepid. And also irrelevant. Those who voted for Franz in the primary should shift seamlessly into the Randall camp no matter what their leader says.
Adam Bernbaum, a state representative candidate, will prevail as the collective Democratic vote adds up to about 60 percent of the vote. He will face Republican Matthew Roberson.
Lands Commissioner is a different story, with the decisive vote count not available at press time. If Dave Upthegrove earns an election slot, supporters of the other four Democratic candidates will add up to a majority. If no Democrat makes it to the general, then party members will vote for the “least objectionable Republican.” In that case, I’d give Jaime Herrera Beutler the edge, as she sacrificed her congressional seat in a vote to impeach Donald Trump.
The legislative domino process, where one candidate retires or seeks a higher office creating a vacancy, is a significant part of this election cycle. In many cases, the created vacancy prompts people to step up, spending a year of their lives pursuing the new office. Regardless of this effort, candidates can hit a wall after a primary defeat.
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Unsuccessful primary candidates Kevin Van De Wege (left, Lands Commissioner) and Hilary Franz (Congress). [/caption]
Democrat candidates Kevin Van De Wege and Franz know the feeling. Van De Wege declined to run for a third term in the State Senate, opting to run for Lands Commissioner. This was predicated by Franz’s own decision to abdicate her Lands Commissioner job in pursuit of the governorship. Franz switched strategies when retiring Gov. Jay Inslee endorsed Bob Ferguson. At that time, US Rep Derek Kilmer stepped down and endorsed Franz as his successor. Franz, for a time, was the frontrunner for Kilmer’s seat.
Franz placed third behind Democrat Emily Randall and Republican Drew McEwen. At the same time, Van De Wege came in second to last in a seven-candidate race for Lands Commissioner (although he placed second in Jefferson County).
“I’m certainly disappointed,” Van De Wege said. “It has been a big part of my life for the last 15 months, and now it's over, and it ends just like that. But I guess, you know, the high points certainly are how much support I got, how many people really believed in the race. That was welcoming to see and have. But yeah, the results did not go our way.”
In a statement, congressional candidate MacEwen said his campaign prevailed despite his raising less money than either Randall or Franz, but that’s a bit disingenuous. From the start of the race, MacEwen was expected to prevail in the top two primaries, with Randall and Franz battling it out for the second slot. Living in Port Townsend, it’s easy to forget that much of the district leans Republican, so MacEwan should have been a shoo-in for the primary.
The same goes for State Rep. candidate Matthew Roberson, the strongest Republican in a five-person race. On forums where the five candidates appeared, Roberson was not the first or second most compelling candidate, but people vote along party lines. Roberson never had to work that hard, but he’ll need to expend more energy in a direct race against Democratic nominee Adam Bernbaum, who earned the most votes.
Assuming that Randall will prevail in November, she will arrive in Congress as a celebrity. She describes herself as a “Queer Latina,” noting that this identity will be the first in the House of Representatives. While this is insignificant with regard to her legislative prowess it will draw some attention, although not Squad-level notoriety.
The political dominoes are also played out on a local level. Jefferson County District 1 Commissioner Kate Dean, announced her congressional candidacy in November, days after Kilmer bowed out. By then, Kilmer had endorsed Franz. Dean dropped out after a month due to her inability to raise the necessary funds. She then declined to run for a third term as County Commissioner, creating a vacancy. The first candidate to announce was Heather Dudley Nollette, followed closely by Port Townsend City Council member Ben Thomas. Both are Democrats, and their appearance on the November ballot was assured as they were the only two candidates.
Dudley Nollette soundly prevailed in the primary gaining 72 percent of the vote to Thomas’ 26 percent. Dudley Nollette blanketed the district with yard signs, while Thomas had no signs at all.
Thomas said the lopsided results were meaningful, but they didn’t count. And unlike Dudley Nollette, Thomas hasn’t yet given the race his full attention.
“That’s what you get for not trying,” he said, laughing. “I haven't had time to do a full campaign.
It’s always been a plan after the primaries to see how things are going to go naturally. And then to kind of see what's the chances of a viable close competition or a win. I don't want to put a bunch of money into something that won't be turned around. But I did want to get the chance to get the messages out.”
Thomas dislikes the mechanics of elections; road signs, promotions and campaigning. But he “loves working out compromises with people and solutions.” He hopes that his support will materialize organically, and hinted that he could conceivably concede before the election. This would be unfortunate, as a two-way race gives everyone a chance to clarify their positions.
Many long-shot candidates cite their prime motivation as “giving voters a choice.” Too often, these candidates are marginal or even stupid. But Thomas has the necessary traits to offer a clearheaded choice, as opposed to races where one candidate is noticeably more qualified than the other.
While there is a lot of agreement between the two candidates with regard to issues their attitudes are miles apart.
“Having someone to run against does make you better, and it makes you work harder,” Dudley Nollette said. “But I did not expect to enjoy this campaign as much as I have, It's been such an honor to have the time and the purpose to listen to and hear from each individual what's important to them, I look forward to being able to use our brains to try to create solutions. That's very cool.”
All photos by Charlie Bermant
Correction: An earlier caption on the main photograph stated that MacEwan and Roberson won their primaries. This has been changed to reflect that they came second and only “won” in the sense that they’ll be the candidate from their party on the ballot in November.
